How Does the Department of State Count Visa Denials? Or “When is a Visa Refusal Not a Refusal?”

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In our previous blog, we highlighted the worldwide B visa refusal rates.  But those DOS published rates do not convey the entire picture. As any politician knows, when making any tally, the actual number is not important, but how one determines that number that is. The Department of State is no different. The Department of State publishes adjusted refusal rates.  The actual refusal rates are not published.  In all likelihood the actual refusal rate is higher, and perhaps in some circumstances, substantially so. So how does the DOS “adjust” its statistics?  It does so by only counting the last consular action on a particular applicant in a fiscal year. For example, if a businessman applied for a visa and was denied two times in 2015, and on his third attempt, he receives a visa in 2015, only the issuance will be counted; the two refusals will not be counted.  If…

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Visa Trends – Higher Refusal Rates in 2015

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The Department of State recently published its 2015 refusal statistics for B visas.  Several countries exceed the 60% mark: Syria, Gambia, Federated States of Micronesia, Mauritania, Liberia, Laos, Haiti, Somalia, Guinea-Bissau, Ghana, Cuba, and Afghanistan.  Among the most populous countries, the refusal rates greatly vary: China – 10.03%; India – 23.78%; Indonesia – 8.71%; Bangladesh – 59.96%; Pakistan – 40.4%; Nigeria – 32.56%; Russia – 10.24%; Philippines – 27.96%; Turkey – 13.88%; and Ukraine – 34.03%. These 2015 refusal rates represent an increase over 2014 for most of these populous countries: for example, the refusal rate for India jumped nearly 4%; in Turkey – more than 6%; in Ukraine – more than 6%; the Philippines – more than 3%; in Pakistan – more than 2%; in Russia – more than 2%; and China – 1%. While on the surface these percentage increases may not seem significant, for these countries –…

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